Techno-Optimists Ignore the Future at Their Peril

Every New Solution Creates New Problems

I have long read and even admired the work of my fellow futurists Ray Kurzweil and Peter Diamandis.

I understand the technological basis for their future optimism. In fact, I have written three books on the topic, including “The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business,” “Jump the Curve: 50 Essential Strategies to Help Your Company Stay Ahead of Emerging Technologies,” and “Business as Unusual: A Futurist’s Unorthodox, Unconventional and Uncomfortable Guide to Doing Business.” I even gave a TED talk on the theme of exponential growth 15 years ago.

There are, however, a handful of serious issues which Kurzweil and Diamandis (and other “techno-optimisms”) dismiss at their peril.

The first is that these individuals take for granted that our political, financial and social structures will remain stable in the future. This is a dangerous assumption.

Advances in artificial intelligence could easily be used by political leaders to advance and put in place authoritarian systems of government. There is no reason to assume the current–and relatively stable–global political environment will remain in place as it has for the past 80-plus years.

Furthermore, if artificial intelligence eliminates as many jobs as quickly as proponents believe it could, might not this amount of disruptive change manifest itself in the form of either a political revolution and/or the collapse of the existing financial markets, systems, and structures? If 20 percent of all white collar middle managers lose their job by 2030 will the world simply absorb this change and go on as it has in the past? I doubt it.

Secondly, both Kurzweil and Diamandis seem blind to the reality that every new solution creates new problems.

To wit, if advances in gene editing, artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and synthetic biology deliver on the promise of longer life expectancies, the safety nets of Social Security and Medicare might both collapse under the weight of these advances.

Similarly, if researchers successfully develop nuclear fusion and create cheap, clean, and abundant energy for the vast majority of the world’s inhabitants, one cannot necessarily assume that the autocrats, dictators, and corporations who rely on oil and gas for their power and profits will peacefully relinquish this control without a fight.

Lastly, even if the goal of material abundance for all is achieved, what will remain of human meaning? Many people will undoubtedly use their newly found time to create stunning and beautiful pieces of art, music, and poetry. Others will spend more time with family, friends and loved ones. Society may even use its time to create unimaginable “cathedrals” of the future. All of these things will be extraordinary.

Yet is it not also possible that many people will not know what to do with themselves? What will these lost souls do? Many may doubledown on the material world and seek relief in consumerism, entertainment, drugs, alcohol, gambling, pornography, etc., but one of the most overlooked possibilities of the future is the very real possibility of large-scale spiritual revivals.

I do not pretend to predict either the “flavor” or direction of this spiritual revolution. In fact, I think people will gravitate towards a wide variety of different faith “streams,” including various denominations of Christianity, Buddhism, Hinduism, Islam, Judaism etc.

My point is two-fold. First, the coming change–even if we achieve “material abundance”--will not be smooth, easy or painless. Secondly, the trend of “spirituality” cannot be overlooked when contemplating the future. In fact, it may well be the trend that most impacts and shapes the world of tomorrow.